ZHANG © 2015
The contributor made efforts to distinguish known risk and uncertainty and highlighted that two decision-making methodologies ought to be undertook.
1 When known risk is dealt, good decisions require logic and statistical thinking.
Risk needs to be communicated properly. To achieve it, (1) what might happen (crisis and risk), (2) what has been done and being done (by the authority), (3) what to do to avoid it happening if necessary, are key information to be conveyed. Overall, being transparent is important. And publicity needs to be educated to understand risk.
2 When faking uncertainly, nevertheless, intuitions are relied on and rules of thumb are suggested.
Intuition refers to unconscious competency. It can be regarded as the most sophisticated capability because of its spontaneity which all the development programs expect to achieve but hard to.
Some of suggestions are sound and helpful for us who are asked to do something even though everything is uncertain, especially in business context.
(1) Positive error culture.
People make defensive decisions, for example to recognition heuristic, to avoid taking responsibility if the decisions go wrong. A positive error culture can encourage take chances to try and be not afraid of shame of mistakes as uncertainty is unpredictable anyway and we need to learn from the mistakes, which matters most.
(2) Less is more.
Importation is always limited for a best decision. If so, why don’t we stop exploring unlimited information but rely on best-known knowledge, simply the situation, and make a rather rational solution. There are many effective examples of simple solution of complex, i.e., invest equally, 37% rule, one-good-reason.
(3) Trust
Trust ourselves and take the ownership of the decisions.
Also, trust others’ competency and motivation.
Gather merits and make better decisions jointly.
Known risk vs uncertainty
《风险与好的决策》热门书评
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好的决策都是化繁为简
10有用 1无用 柳言鹰语 2015-06-25
好的决策都是化繁为简 在充满不确定性的现实世界里,最佳决策通常来自于简单的经验法则,即运用较少的信息,并相信你自己的直觉。 决策是在人们的政治、经济、技术和日常生活中,为了...
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世界如此混乱,不如简单以对
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世界如此混乱,不如简单以对————读《风险与好的决策》林颐 今年股市大热,行情的上涨同时意味着风险的不断积累。怎样规避风险呢?接下来,上涨还是下跌?大多数股民都想要有好的决策。 社会心理学家,德国柏林马普所人类发展研究中心主任格尔德•吉仁泽在他...
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一个碎碎念而没有真正深度的作品
2有用 0无用 若微fly 2016-05-10
作者基本上讲,面对决策,应该察知风险——那么学习统计学吧,应该用简单的直觉——那么用简单的经验法则吧,还可以用ABCDE各种方法。但避而不谈什么原则下使用什么,要知道统计学也有大错误,因为统计学衡量的是确定的风险;经验法则也会出问题,很多时候我们的直觉并不可靠;ABCDE种种方法,每种方法结果都不一...
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关于风险的延生阅读
1有用 0无用 回肠木 2015-11-03
从本书开始,我会将整体的评价标准提高。那么,我究竟会把什么样的书设定为力荐呢?想了想,先用反脆弱作为这个标准吧。本书其实可以看做是对《反脆弱》的拓展阅读。很多概念其实在反一书中都有提及。但是又大多点到为止,没有展开。比如关于启发法这个概念,我看完反脆弱之后,也就是知道了这个名词而已。全书的结构有些乱...
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论刀锋战士的养成
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书名: 风险与好的决策
作者: [德] 格尔德·吉仁泽
出版社: 中信出版股份有限公司
原作名: RISK SAVVY: HOW TO MAKE GOOD DECISIONS
译者: 王晋
出版年: 2015-4
页数: 336
定价: 59.00元
装帧: 平装
ISBN: 9787508649870