果然大师风范

此书为1989年出版，但拿来当今中国股市借鉴，毫不过时。耳熟能详的吉姆·罗杰斯，乔治·索罗斯，约翰·内夫，彼得·林奇就不用提了。迈克尔·斯坦哈特，写过《No Bull: My Life In and Out of Markets》，即《我不是多头》；菲利普·卡雷特，写过《The Art of Speculation》，即《投机的艺术》现已绝版。

其中可以关注的投资理念是关于拉尔夫·万格，属于投资者中的浪漫主义者，即使书写基金报告也绝对要绘声绘色。“我宁愿自己的报告有错误，也要写得生动一些。”很让我喜欢。他把基金经理群比喻成斑马群非常形象。他使我想起了王亚伟，就是属于马群外围的马。外围的马要以吃到新鲜的草，但却要面临更大的风险。

还有净资产收益率的倡导者，乔治·米凯利斯，在中国的名声不大，在网上也很难找到关于他的信息。他甘心做一个“一垒打选手”也许是最值得我们学习的。大多人死在资本市场里，只因为他们太高地估计自己的能力，给自己的期望值太高，只想做“全垒打选手”。有一段关于他和他的基金的数据，录于此备查。

George Michaelis

Fund or affiliation
Source Capital

Methodology
Emphasizes on sustainable ROE with low tolerance for risk. To "buy earning power at a discount".

Asset Categories Employed
1.Stocks, distressed finance company senior debt, convertibles.
2.Avoids complex derivatives.

Research/ Valuation Techniques Employed
1.Rarely invests in themes like "Americans are getting older" type.
2.Looks at companies with these features:
2.1. High ROA & ROE, high ROE should be sustainable;
2.2. Earning power not hostage to business cycle;
2.3. Successful for identifiable reasons.
3.Debt averse - average debt level at 15% of total assets.
4.Never buys AA bonds, as against AAA ones. For 30 b.p. it is not worth it.

Trading Techniques Employed
1.The lowest cash level was 10%; he had 20% cash before the 1987 crash.
2.Michaelis tries very hard to avoid significant losses. He doesn’t mind lagging the averages if the market breaks away on the upside.

Philosophy and beliefs
"Invest with the one hundred-year storm in mind."
Not primarily motivated to maximize return because of low tolerance for risk.
On derivatives: "Intellectual people are attracted to intellectually elegant conceptions, such complicated instruments are likely to distract them from the more fundamental truths."

History and other facts
1.Train quoted Robert Kirby, head of Capital Guardian Trust, "Stocks are much more volatile than the businesses they represent."
2.Warren Buffett often asks someone he’s talking on the phone "What are you buying?"

Examples
1.Kellogg - economy of scale: being 2.5 times larger than its next competitor, even the management does a bad job for 4-5 years, basic profitability will not erode.
2.Marsh & McLennan - tollgate for the largest companies.
3.Bristol-Meyers - 35 years of consecutive earnings growth, at 25% ROE, excess cash, no debt.

Performance Record
18.4% over 15 years: "A calculation in the summer of 1988 showed that over the past 15 years the total return of Source Capital was exactly 3 times that of S&P 500: The gross gain was 1200%... exceeded by only 16 other funds...", J.Train, NMM pp. 123